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Hinch Blog: Back To The Polls?

Posted by: Derryn Hinch for 3AW.com.au | 8 September, 2010 - 6:18 PM

The ink is hardly dry on the agreements by the Independents that squeezed Julia Gillard back into the top job and yet less than 24 hours later there are doubts over what they did and didn’t agree on as part of the deal. Shucks, did Tony Windsor really think that the mining tax would be part of the tax review? Today he said he thought it was part of the package. Wayne Swan, safely back in the job (for now) says it was never part of the deal.

As the other Swannee’s brother Jimmy Barnes, would say ‘is this the way it’s gonna be forever?’

Seems so. And that’s why this desperately cobbled together ‘bush bribe’ government can’t last. I’d give it 12 months max.

It’s bad enough that one of the reason’s Windsor gave for handing his vote to Gillard was because Labor was less likely to go back to the people and risk an even worse verdict.

He said yesterday: ‘There has been background noise, and a little bit louder than background noise, that if there’s a hung Parliament with the Coalition in government that they’d rush off to the polls as soon as they could. And one of the things that we really want to do is try and get some longevity into this Parliament’.

So, back the team that got 700,000 less primary votes and less seats in its own right. Plus a virtual dead-heat in the Two Party Preferred. When asked why he thought Tony Abbott was more likely to head back to the polls Windsor replied in a burst of unguarded, unintentional, honesty. He said: ‘Because I think they’d be more likely to win.’ [A Herald Sun poll today had 78% in favour of a new election.]

Tony Abbott would be itching to get back for another chance at the ballot box. On the plus side the increasingly influential Greens would have some of their radical policies subjected to closer scrutiny. Especially their credo: If it moves tax it. If it doesn’t move, tax it until it does.

On the down side, some Labor voters, who went for The Greens in protest and elected people like Adam Ant in Melbourne, might return to the fold. And a year from now the Kevin Rudd factor that belted Labor in Queensland will have softened. As I said on Paul Murray Live last night, they’ll have put their baseball bats back in the closet.

You’ll probably also have new Liberal Governments in Queensland and New South Wales by then and that will take some of the passion out of the anti-Labor protesters—especially in Sydney’s west.

But forcing Gillard back to the polls must be in Abbott’s best interests. He’s got those 700,000 primary reasons in his favour right now and a lot can happen to a leader in three years. Ask Kevin Rudd.
Abbott could conceivably be history in three years.

The Three Amigos certainly will be.

Blog comments

Labor is now on 50.05% of the two party preferred vote according to today's latest electoral commission figures. It appears that Labor has beaten the Coalition on this figure.
Tony Abbott's primary vote comparison involves comparing the primary votes of two parties (Liberal plus National) to one party (Labor). Why isn't he comparing it to Labor plus Greens? Because Labor plus Greens' primary vote easily exceeds Liberal plus National.

bruce Thursday 9 September, 2010 - 12:52 PM
Another Windsor goose. He is not that accounts savvy, specially coming from there. For him mining is sticking things in dirt and taking dirt out. Its just dirt and does not require a Uni degree.
After the dirt is pulled out we all just go to the beer hole.

Norman Thursday 9 September, 2010 - 11:21 AM