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Sunday February 12, 2012

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  • Pauline on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' DHS have destroyed my own family. They failed in their duty of care to provide a baby moniter for the deaf , thousands of ... more
  • Christine on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' isn't it funny how DHS don't recognise the psychological effects of domestic violence on children and continue to allow ... more
  • Warrior princess on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' There is a family In the Cairns Area who are Foster Carers.Atherton Child Safety have threatened the carers and own ... more
  • duncan on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' i have spent time with this family. it is a house full of love. "mum", grandfather and older sblings.this cannot be an issue ... more
  • Tracey on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Family Law is different from the rest of the law in this country.. Ie. Family Law is based on probability: ie if it might ... more
  • carol annetta on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' having known this family for some time i am disgusted with the treatment she has received. it seems more of a witch hunt ... more
  • Maureen Hillary on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Derryn,I have counselled traumatized parents as a result of DHS staff.There are great staff workers who care but they ... more
  • Janet Tavener on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' I am a visitor to this country.My attention was drawn to the case of these children and their foster mother by a relative of ... more
  • sam on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Happening in Tasmania also.Wewon a court case over 8 months ago and due process still hasn't been done.We spent 17,000 ... more
  • Anne Glover on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' I just cannot believe what the DHS has put the Foster Mother, and the children through - I thought the DHS was supposed to ... more
  • Tracey on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' DHS are the most disgraceful organization I have ever had the displeasure of becoming involved with. They are so ... more
  • Vicki on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Hi Derryn,I have known this carer since primary school, she has always put others above herself. Being a carer myself I know ... more
  • Gran'ma Pam on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' As any of us with any sense know, these children should NEVER have been taken from this lady (mum) in the first place, they ... more
  • Dominic Lombardo on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' I see my daughter every six months DHS are conducting a vendetta against me I have not been told why I can only see her ... more
  • cassy houghton on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Hello Derryn,Firstly i would like to thankyou for your support and the willingness to help this beautiful family.I ... more
  • Warrior princess on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Im a carer also in Qld. I see this happen way too much from our Government. They are starting to use Carers own children as ... more
  • paul on "I'll pay the fee," says Hinch I believe what Liberal Party has done is stupid. But I feel for candidates like Joh Bauch and James Buonopane who want to ... more
  • Andrea on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Why are these public servants allowed to blatantly flout the law without the same consequences the rest of society faces? I ... more
  • birth mother on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' i am the birth morther of these 4 children and i just want to say dhs dont care they just want the kids in care so they can ... more
  • Frances Goff on Help Hinch fight DHS 'pinheads' Derryn, Firstly, Happy BirthdayHaving worked in a primary school for 15 year I have seen some terrible things regarding DHS ... more

Hinch's 'election' crystal ball

Posted by: Derryn Hinch | 6 September, 2010 - 7:17 PM
Hinch will be blogging while on leave for 3AW.com.au

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I’ve been thinking, which is always dangerous when you are on leave, about how this final ‘pick a PM’ game will eventually play out.

We’ve done the ‘waiting for the Three Amigos’ thing to death.

They’ve had more meetings in Canberra today after their Road to Damascus ‘deep thought’ weekend and we still haven’t got a solution.

But I think most of the Coalition, including Tony Abbott, now concedes that Julia Gillard will form the next government. Probably within 24 hours.

In reality Abbott has stalled on 73 seats –including the reluctant National from the pro-mining west, Tony Crook. He can’t support a government that endorses a strong mining tax and especially with Bob Brown demanding an even tougher one.

Labor at 72, to me, always had 74 with Adam Ant from The Greens and Andrew Wilkie (a former Greens candidate).

I have long given Rob Oakeshott’s vote to Labor. That gives them 75 and, in recent days, I’ve been putting ‘Uncle Tony’ Windsor’s vote into the Labor column on the basis that he wants a ‘stable’ government and at 76-73 (WK, without Katter) that’s at least a workable minority government in the short term.

Windsor’s not keen on a 75-75 result with another trip to the polls.

And that leaves Ten Gallon Katter. You’d expect him to go for the Coalition at the death knock. But that would leave them still short at 76-74 and even with a Speaker coming from Labor Gillard would still have a government.

There is no way that Abbott is going to get all three Independents so he cannot form government. So get inside Katter’s head.  He’s had more than his fifteen minutes of fame. More than he ever dreamed. If he sides with the Coalition he becomes just another backbencher in Opposition.

If he stays in that three-man bloc, that Gillard desperately needs to stay in office, he can maintain his high profile, push for more pork in his country barrel and hope when he faces angry voters at the next election can say: ‘Look what I’ve done for you’.

So Hinch’s Hunch: Tomorrow the Three Amigos will back Labor, Gillard will form a government but, hang on to your Stetsons… we’ll be back at the polls in 12-18 months and Labor will lose.

Footnote: As I mentioned, I am on leave for two weeks. But in these momentous times I’ll file occasional editorials for Hinch Says and will keep twittering on @HumanHeadline.

Stress? Try farming, Derryn

Tony Windsor on holding balance of power for Election 2010 HINCH SPEAKS TO WINDSOR: "That leaves Tony Windsor. He may go for the Coalition but that would tie it up at 75 a piece and for the sake of getting a government in place – for that stable and effective government they are talking about he could go Labor produces a Speaker and they govern with a one-seat majority 75-74."

Blog comments Your Say

  • My gripe is not about who gets what, so long as people in OZ benefit and I am pleased it appears the bush will get a good share. I am really dissapointed and cannot agree though with the government of our country coming down to 5 men, all who have an axe to grind or vested interests in what side to back. They already voted in their own electorate so how dare they get not just another vote but the final one! Millions voted yet it comes down to them. The final 2 votes put the nail in the coffin of course but it was the whole 5 with their axe to grind that took the rights of millions away. We need to go back to the polls.

    joanne Wednesday 8 September, 2010 - 12:04 PM

  • It's a very bad day for dugongs and sea turtles in Australia as the Labor party have ZERO interest in addressing the problem of the cruel, wanton killing and black market trading of these rapidly diminshing species. ONLY the coalition was prepared to address this this to the tune of 2.6 million.
    My advice to dugongs and turtles is to head for safer waters. Australia won't help you.

    Justine Tuesday 7 September, 2010 - 7:04 PM

  • Labor finished the vote with 73 (including the Green vote). Wilkie was never destined to vote for anything other than Labor after Howard's decision to enter the Iraq war. He's was always destined to aim for the best deal for his state (74 votes). The Libs can't win, regardless of the 3 Independent votes. Rob Oakeshott IS an Independent & will most likely support Labor, particularly after some of the harassment he has personally endured over the past 2 weeks (75 votes), as I said on 2nd September. The remaining 2 Independents have their political future & credibility on the line. If they fall in behind the Nationals & the Coalition (necessitating another election), they may as well as forget about politics full stop, because their political independence & credibility will amount to ZERO~! Labor needs one vote, which they should acquire comfortably to form government~! It's that simple~!

    Lenny Tuesday 7 September, 2010 - 12:36 PM

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