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Katrina on Election result on 'knife's edge' When you have biased lefties like MARTIN O'SHAUGHNESSY using subtle ratting suggesting listeners could pass a sympathy vote ... more
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baron of bentleigh on Yes We Will .. Will We? I am in Crean's electorate and most of us in line have switched sides. We are making our vote count and putting Labour and ... more
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janet page on Power to the People If you want people power, Look up the, Senate on Line Party. more
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Election result on 'knife's edge'

Posted by: Steve Murphy, Political Analyst | 13 August, 2010 - 2:31 PM

As we approach the business end of Campaign 2010, the election is evenly poised and could break either way based on the performances of the two leaders over the coming week. It will be pressure like Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott have never before experienced.

The Government on nationwide polls has its nose in front and remains a firm favourite with punters, while the Coalition remains well positioned in the key marginal seats in the swing states of New South Wales and Queensland, which will make for a hectic final week of campaigning.

To that end, Labor strategists – either by good design or good fortune - have dealt themselves a potential advantage by scheduling the official ALP campaign launch on Monday.

Launches naturally generate enormous media coverage and dominate what we read, see and hear for 24 hours. This gives the PM a perfect start to the final week, provided she gets it right.

Getting it right means she must use the launch to set the agenda for the run home. A headline policy announcement that would carve out the territory on which she wants the last week’s debate to happen, while at the same time highlighting her opponent’s weaknesses.

The core of her approach is likely to be on the economy, but more about economic policy and so called macro settings as opposed economic management, which in this campaign is a negative euphemism for pink batts, the Building Education Revolution and the green loans fiasco.

One of the really tricky parts to the launch will be how they handle the vision of Kevin Rudd. The former PM will be there and is by convention entitled to be sitting up front.

If Rudd is ignored it will not play well. If whatever engagement he has with the PM looks insincere or fake it runs the risk of overshadowing the broader launch message. Ofcourse much of how it plays out will be in the hands or should I say body language of Rudd himself. The last time these two met it was terrible vision and the Labor machine will be desperate to ensure there is no repeat on Monday.

Let’s not forget the issue of his toppling is potently negative in Queensland and in New South Wales as was demonstrated at the Peoples’ Forum at the Rooty Hill RSL earlier this week, when swinging voters virtually sneered at the PM when the issue was raised.

For Tony Abbott it is almost impossible to divert from the launch. My guess he will spend most of his time in the first few days of the last week hitting the marginals, doing as much local television, radio and newspapers as is humanly possible. Strong local messages for local swinging audiences.

The Opposition Leader will need to keep his foot on the accelerator. He will need to keep bashing away at his themes of disarray and incompetence, but he will also need to make sure that he gets a positive message out there as well.

His insurgency campaign has worked well thus far, but as voters really start to focus on their choice, he will need to give them something positive that reassures them his would be a good Government.

Going into the last week behind in the national polls means it is all for Mr Abbott to do.

Rooted at Rooty Hill

HINCH BLOG: "The records will show that Julia Gillard lost the ‘battle for Rooty Hill’ in the first minute at the outer Sydney RSL club last night. The venue for the so-called old style town hall meeting." Read Hinch's analysis of the Rooty Hill forum.

Blog comments

When you have biased lefties like MARTIN O'SHAUGHNESSY using subtle ratting suggesting listeners could pass a sympathy vote to the Labor Party on the radio this morning it tells you of the complete rot in the so called media decency.

Katrina Saturday 21 August, 2010 - 2:25 PM