What we're talking about

Stanley on Power to the People So now we are people.No wonder even the East Timor parliamentarians rejected our begging for attention.Did the people decide ... more
Jenifer on Yes We Will .. Will We? Yes, we will....go to the dogs ,if I don't win. Gillard's last jinx. more
Barb on What you don't see in a campaign I see! I see! I see!Very very big knife for very very big stab for Lady as counting results brings Tony to Top. No running ... more
Sally on Dance of the reluctant brides Lenny must be suffering from acute entrails problems as his red medusa idol lately. The eennnnnnd of the wwwwooorrrlldd is ... more
Hughes on Yes We Will .. Will We? I suspect Lenny is a tree hugger and BBrowntongue is expecting to ride on Labor prefs at the cost of Labor itself. They ... more
Katrina on Election result on 'knife's edge' When you have biased lefties like MARTIN O'SHAUGHNESSY using subtle ratting suggesting listeners could pass a sympathy vote ... more
Kate on It ain't over til it's over The National Beijing Network will be bought and run by you know who ? So no complaints.All is fine. Only I have the ... more
baron of bentleigh on Yes We Will .. Will We? I am in Crean's electorate and most of us in line have switched sides. We are making our vote count and putting Labour and ... more
Lenny on Yes We Will .. Will We? Sue, only an ignorant self serving imbecile would vote for the Liberals. The Rabbit couldn't manage a game of two up~! ... more
peed off on How to vote in Federal Election I would like to know if either party is going to do anything about changing the policies in the department of housing. Wait ... more
Brendan Mason on How to vote in Federal Election I used to believe in compulsory voting but now only want people with fair dinkum opinions to vote. Those who don't care ... more
Brendan Mason on It ain't over til it's over The fear of the Liberals is of what may or MAY NOT happen where as we know what to fear of Labor...house fires, rorts, ... more
David on It ain't over til it's over Lets not give this incompotent government another term. more
mylene on Yes We Will .. Will We? Lots of people say if the election result doesn't go their way they'll leave the country but I'll bet anything that nobody ... more
Danny on It ain't over til it's over Gillarding is the word.You will wake up on Sunday You will wake up on Sunday You will wake up on Sunday, will you really, ... more
janet page on It ain't over til it's over Just remember people when you vote tomorrow, you are Not voting for an Individual, but a political party, and the parties ... more
janet page on Power to the People If you want people power, Look up the, Senate on Line Party. more
janet page on It ain't over til it's over Labor has announced it will sell off the multi billion dollar Broad Band, that we the people will be forced to pay for. And ... more
steve murphy on Juila will and Tony will not? Gerard, It is the one big question that hasn't been answered during the campaign. What will it cost me to access 100mbps? ... more
Kevin H on Yes We Will .. Will We? I hope Labor wins and the GST goes up to 40-50%, petrol 5$ a litre and more, bank rates at 19.7% as it was with the last ... more

It ain't over til it's over

Posted by: Steve Muprhy, Political Analyst | 20 August, 2010 - 11:33 AM

STEVE MURPHY: After five weeks, Campaign 2010 has come down to the question of risk, with both leaders urging voters not to risk electing their opponent. If only the choice was really that simple. Given the nature of this campaign, it will probably come down to who voters dislike the least.

Ms Gillard’s message today is that “there is a very real risk that Mr Abbott will be Prime Minister on Sunday and people should not underestimate that risk to their future.”

The Opposition Leader ‘s message is “Don’t give a dysfunctional, bad and poll driven Government a second chance that would risk the future with more debt, waste and mismanagement.”

Polls have it as a 50-50 bet. Bookmakers are holding more money for Labor than the Coalition, but punters have wagered on the Liberals picking up a swag of marginal seats that would deliver it Government. Newspapers around the country are split in their editorial support for the major parties. Internal ALP polling shows Labor in trouble in marginal seats in Queensland and NSW. It truly is a cliff hanger.

With many voters still undecided and likely to only make up their minds when they enter polling booths tomorrow, both Leaders are desperately trying to reach out and influence as many people as possible.

By the time we get to six o’clock tonight, Tony Abbott will have been campaigning continuously for 36 hours, a la Bill Clinton in 1992 when he ran against George Bush senior and campaigned around the clock in the final day, visiting all night diners and talking to shift workers. He went on to win.

The PM is engaged in a media blitz and is visiting crucial marginals, such as Robertson on the New South Wales central coast, which the ALP desperately needs to retain, save it be sent to the Opposition benches after just one term.

This could be the closest election since 1961 when the Coalition won 63 seats to the ALP’s 62 in a 124 seat House of Representatives.

In 2010, in a 150 seat House of Representatives, either party requires 77 seats to have a working majority, irrespective of the number of independents or Greens who are elected. That is one member of the dominant party becomes speaker of the house (he/she does not vote on legislation) leaving 76 members (a majority) to pass Government legislation.

The ALP currently has 88 seats, the Coalition 59 and there are 3 independents. 18 seats need to change hands for the Coalition to win Government and have a working majority. To achieve that it requires a uniform national swing of approximately 2.3%.

Against a first term Government, achieving such a swing and winning such a large number of seats is a very big ask and historically it is likely that the ALP will just hang on. I for one am not prepared to take a punt and pick a winner.

Federal Election voting guide

At the request of parents of first-time voters (and young 3AW Radio staffers), political analyst Steve Murphy has written a comprehensive explanation of the ins and outs of voting on Federal Election day. Read the information sheet by clicking the image on the right.

3AW Radio's 'Super Saturday'

Don't miss 3AW's call of Collingwood and Adelaide on 3AW FOOTBALL on 3AW 693 while 3AW ELECTION on 3AW Radio 2 will provide extended of the 2010 campaign coming to a close.

Federal Election 2010

Blog comments

The National Beijing Network will be bought and run by you know who ? So no complaints.
All is fine. Only I have the impression one of the Rudds will be the on site rep up there. Am I right? or..

Kate Saturday 21 August, 2010 - 2:04 PM
The fear of the Liberals is of what may or MAY NOT happen where as we know what to fear of Labor...house fires, rorts, wasted money and on and on and on....

Brendan Mason Friday 20 August, 2010 - 5:29 PM
Lets not give this incompotent government another term.

David Friday 20 August, 2010 - 3:46 PM
Gillarding is the word.
You will wake up on Sunday You will wake up on Sunday You will wake up on Sunday,
will you really,
and the very big risk very big risk very big risk very big risk.
I have the impression that these words are coming from her sore stomach and stressing her out by the very thought of the size of the STAB if she loses as the best KRudd replacement.

Danny Friday 20 August, 2010 - 2:26 PM
Just remember people when you vote tomorrow, you are Not voting for an Individual, but a political party, and the parties Whips.

janet page Friday 20 August, 2010 - 1:26 PM
Labor has announced it will sell off the multi billion dollar Broad Band, that we the people will be forced to pay for. And there is NO RESTRICTIONS on what country can bye it.

janet page Friday 20 August, 2010 - 12:00 PM