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The two paths coronavirus could take in Australia now that more than 100 cases have been recorded

As the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Australia rises to over 100, global trends tell us there are two paths the virus could take in Australia.

Australia has recorded 128 cases of the virus and CEO of the Grattan Institute, John Daley, says at this point it is “almost impossible” for cases to continue rising at a modest rate.

“Either epidemics grow very fast or you get to the point where each infected person is infecting less than one new person and then what happens is that they tend to die pretty quickly,” he told 3AW’s Ross and John.

“If you have the disease potentially communicating from person-to-person within your community, unless you take pretty aggressive measures in terms of shutting down all of your schools, shutting down anything that looks like a significant public gathering, and that’s probably more than a dozen people, you can expect it will move through the community pretty quickly.

“If you look at the history of the growth rate of this virus, in pretty much all the countries once its got to more than about 100 cases or so it has tended to follow, more or less, the same trajectory until countries put in place those kind of measures, as for example, China did eventually.”

Mr Daley said completely closing Australia’s borders to international trvellers remains an option, but it won’t be viable for much longer.

“It doesn’t make sense to do that at the point where you already have community to community transmission,” he said.

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Image: Luis Ascui / Stringer

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