Modelling suggests Victoria’s COVID-19 cases will fall to single digits within a week

A biostatistician has revealed some promising modelling which suggests Victoria could record just 10 new COVID-19 cases per day by this weekend.

Professor of Biostatistics at the University of South Australia, Adrian Esterman, said other experts have used a theory of transmission of infections to form their models, but it hasn’t been very accurate.

So he’s adopted a different method.

“I’ve taken a totally different approach. I’ve said ‘What’s the shape of the epidemic curve? What does it look like?’, he told Ross and Russel.

Professor Esterman says his modelling shows, if the current epidemic curve continues, cases should fall to single-digits by next week.

“I’m getting down to 10-ish cases next weekend,” he said.

But he has warned modelling is not an exact science.

“There’s no certainty,” he said.

“If the current trend continues, this is where we’re going to hit, but it may not continue.”

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