The aspect of Victoria’s COVID-19 outbreak that’s making an epidemiologist ‘quite nervous’

An epidemiologist who worked on the modelling the state government used to justify COVID-19 restrictions during last year’s second wave says he’s “quite nervous” about the number of potential exposure sites in Victoria’s current outbreak.

Professorial fellow in epidemiology at the University of Melbourne, Tony Blakely, says mystery cases will determine if the seven-day lockdown is extended.

“It will be far more based, this time around, on whether the people are known contacts, or unknowns, or mystery cases,” he told Neil Mitchell.

“With 270 contact sites it does make you quite nervous that there would be other people out there who have no idea about it that are infected and are potentially able to spread it.”

Professor Blakely, who is working on modelling for this outbreak, says it’s still “really hard to know” what position Victoria will be in on Thursday.

But he says the likelihood of an extended lockdown appears to be growing.

“I think the needle has shifted slightly towards less likely … in the last 24 hours with the situation in the aged care facility and that one mystery case,” he said.

Press PLAY below to Professor Blakely weigh in on when he thinks lockdown rules will be lifted