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Where modelling suggests Victoria’s COVID-19 numbers will go from here

Article image for Where modelling suggests Victoria’s COVID-19 numbers will go from here

As the COVID-19 pandemic stretches on in Victoria, a leading researcher who has done in-depth modelling on the trajectory of the virus says we’re winning the battle.

Professor Michael McCarthy, from the School of BioSciences at the University of Melbourne, says new case figures are likely to fall to double digits consistently in coming days.

“I’d expect around about 600 or maybe a little over cases around the next week,” he told Ross and Russel.

“This time next week we’ll probably average at around 70 cases, I would expect.”

Victoria’s current lockdown is set to end on September 13.

Professor McCarthy expects daily totals will be under 50 by then.

“I would hope by the end of lockdown, so mid-September, we’d be under 50, well and truly, per day.

He also revealed when he thinks we’ll be back to single digit new cases per day.

“I would think probably not until the end of September,” he said.

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